Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mainly explains why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you want to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team might be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the very first Canadian team because Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the money has come in on the Oilers.


Connor McDavid (97) talks to media throughout a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would anticipate that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a little more Oilers cash even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I believe we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers must be favored.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these 2 teams much better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little worse than last year, particularly when you take a look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I give the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth player to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him an opportunity to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might give it to him here, however that's something to see as the video games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't truly standing apart ... there is a genuine world where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been viewed as a weakness on the lineup, a track record that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major factor Edmonton is still playing. He has actually allowed one or no goals in five of his previous seven starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another fantastic run in the net might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could finally reach the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating unit having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a little bit tougher because more people liked Florida, but individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a possibility to go six or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)