Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are small favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you desire to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to become the first Canadian team given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has actually come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll probably take a little bit more Oilers money just due to the fact that of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers should be favored.


"You do not see rematches too frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these 2 groups much better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than in 2015, particularly when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a chance to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite because of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they could give it to him here, however that's something to watch as the games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually standing apart ... there is a real life where it could be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been considered as a weak point on the lineup, a track record that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major factor Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or absolutely no objectives in 5 of his previous 7 starts, 3 of them shutouts.


Another fantastic run in the net might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have informed you this was sustainable before," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its third consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might finally reach the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heater having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "Last year was a bit tougher since more individuals liked Florida, but individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go either way and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a possibility to go six or 7 games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)