Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you could make an argument that either group might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the very first Canadian team considering that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has can be found in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a bit more Oilers cash simply because of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't buy the Oilers should be favored.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious concern: Are these two groups better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a much better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly worse than in 2015, specifically when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might offer it to him here, however that's something to view as the games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually standing apart ... there is a real world where it could be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been viewed as a weak point on the lineup, a reputation that seemed sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has actually enabled one or no goals in five of his past seven starts, three of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the web might put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its third consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could lastly capture up to the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a bit tougher because more people liked Florida, but people are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go in any case and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a possibility to go six or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)